National Institute for Discovery Science: The Scientific Search for Evidence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Solar System

The Scientific Search for Evidence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Solar System

By T. Roy Dutton, CEng, MIMechE, MRAeS
and

Edward Ashpole

T. Roy Dutton, Sunways, Kingsgate Close, Torquay, Devon TQ2 8 QA, England. Phone/Fax – 01803 326628

Edward Ashpole, Greenfield Cottage, Gilfach Hill, Lampeter Velfrey, Narberth, Pembrokeshire SA67 8UL Wales, Britain. Phone – 01834 831522

Abstract: It is shown that the scientific rationale, which supports the hypothesis that evidence of ETI’s (extraterrestrial intelligence’s), or their artifacts, may exist in the Solar System, can be based on established astronomy, biology, geology and paleontology, given the assumption that interstellar spaceflight, based on physics as yet undiscovered, can become a universal activity. The supporting science alone should make us interested in the possibility of ETI evidence in the Solar System, even in the complete absence of any other information. But strange and inexplicable phenomena have been reported worldwide, especially in recent decades. In some reports certain aspects of the UFO phenomena do relate to the relevant science, though perhaps we need be concerned with no more than one per cent of these reports. We can say that the other 99 per cent of reports are generated by the powerful mythology of UFO’s without weakening our case that the acceptable science justifies testing what hypotheses can be developed from the available data. T. Roy Dutton offers one theory (the Astronautical Theory), developed without preconceptions from the most credible UFO data. The theory indicates that a programmed astronautical system is routinely monitoring our planet. Such a system could be very old, judging from the relevant science. The Astronautical Theory is testable by appropriate astronomical observations, since it predicts the precise co-ordinates for the "retro-orbits" in which spacecraft of the monitoring system might be observed. Part of the theory also identifies a pattern of associated ground tracks over the Earth’s surface on which UFO events occur. Thus it may be used to check on the most credible UFO encounters reported by witnesses. The theory now awaits rigorous testing.

The first section of this essay is by Edward Ashpole; the second section is by T. Roy Dutton.

The first part of the question posed by the National Institute for Discovery Science is: "If contact were made between humans and extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) on Earth or in the Solar System, what is the most probable means by which that would occur?" To make an informed guess as to what "the most probable means" would be, we have to use what we know of the universe and the history of life on Earth to find the scenario that looks the most probable, regarding the behaviour of technologically intelligent life that is advanced enough to cross interstellar space. In other words, given that ETI’s evolve in other planetary systems, what are they most likely to do when they reach a level of technological civilization that enables them to explore other worlds? We should therefore first review the relevant science because this will both establish the scientific credentials of the question we are trying to answer and provide an indication of what kind of evidence we might expect to discover if ETI’s are within the Solar System. The relevant science will also show that the old science fiction concept of contact with visiting aliens will remain just that-fiction. The last event we should expect is direct communications. No alien a million years our senior is going to land and say "Take me to your leader." Thus those ways by which we might establish the presence of ETI spacecraft that have not landed could be the main means-the fundamental means-by which we might know that "interaction had taken place". However, the meaning of "interaction" has to be broad in this context. No unprotected biological ETI is likely to make direct contact with our biosphere which would probably soon destroy any alien biology.

I also wish to establish here that the extraterrestrial hypothesis is not one either for true believers or highly skeptical scientists. Most scientists, of course, are busy in their own disciplines. Unless they are strongly motivated to do so, they are not going to find the time to explore the scientific rationale for the possible presence of evidence of ETI’s or their artifacts in the Solar System. Thus a brief consideration of this scientific rationale provides the logical way into our subject. My view is that the scientific rationale should convince readers that our question deserves scientific respect. Even in the total absence of reports of strange aerial craft (UFO reports), the scientific rationale for the extraterrestrial hypothesis is strong enough to justify an expectation of possible ETI phenomena in the Solar System.

Our scenario, which is based on this scientific rationale, rest on three main hypotheses. And in the process of testing for evidence of ETI’s or their artifacts we will obviously be testing all three-at the same time. The hypotheses are:

Obviously, the hypothesis that interstellar spaceflight can become a universal activity cannot be tested by us in isolation at the present time. Though indisputable evidence of ETI craft in the Solar System would of course confirm it. It would also confirm that there is a lot more physics to be discovered here on Earth. As yet, we do not know if phenomena exist in Nature that, when discovered, would provide the scientific basis for interstellar spaceflight. The various means so far envisaged for interstellar spaceflight (such as nuclear fusion and matter-antimatter reactions) look more highly dangerous than promising. They also look too costly to be part of any routine propulsion system for spaceflight. What we will need, if the Space Age is going to develop significantly, is a system that makes spaceflight as routine as today's aviation. We must therefore hope that physicists have not yet reached the end of the road as far as new science is concerned; that there are discoveries yet to be made that will provide the basis for major future technologies. Although the present prospects for interstellar transport do not look too promising, we have to remember that we live in the early days of our technological epoch-too early, perhaps, to expect to possess knowledge that would take us to the stars. But if that "new knowledge" exists in nature to be discovered it can only be found by highly advanced physicists. No other scientific discipline than physics can expect to offer a scientific basis for a revolutionary system of propulsion. Most of today’s physicists may be horrified by such a suggestion-but I hope not all. The point to recognize here is that if extraterrestrial intelligence has visited the Solar System, or is doing so at the present time, perhaps monitoring our rapidly changing civilization, then that "new physics" does exist in Nature to be discovered. They, the ETI’s could not be here otherwise. This therefore suggests that extraterrestrial spacecraft, if any have visited us, would almost certainly display characteristics that were inexplicable to us because their technology would be based on science as yet unknown to us.

A proportion of reports of the UFO phenomena might be relevant here. Many of these reports describe craft which display strange and inexplicable characteristics of flight. According to many hundreds of reports worldwide, these craft hover without any visible means of propulsion, accelerate noiselessly to enormous speeds and make sharp-angled turns in flight which defy the laws of gravity and inertia. In night-time encounters, witnesses are also confused by brilliant lights associated with these craft. Often the witnesses are at a loss to explain what they have seen because it is beyond any past experience. These UFO reports are the most interesting because they are what we might expect in encounters with ETI’s (or their artifacts) whose means of arrival would have to be based on science and technology way beyond our experience. I would emphasize that such interesting UFO reports (say one per cent of what is reported) do not confirm that ETI’s are visiting the Earth: they only provide support for the hypothesis that they are, a hypothesis that awaits scientific testing. Actually, several hypotheses can be developed from the reported UFO data and all await scientific testing. One can reasonably ask at this point: "Why would ETI’s be visiting us so frequently at this time in Earth history?" I’ve thought about this a lot, keeping in mind that ETI’s could have first discovered the Earth as a life-supporting planet many millions of years ago by using astronomical techniques not difficult to envisage. I can only conclude therefore that ETI’s are more likely to be monitoring the Earth during human history than at any other time because civilization is changing the Earth so rapidly. If the emergence of technological intelligence in a biosphere and the subsequent development of civilization are rare events, then the Earth may never have been of greater interest to ETI’s. The stage at which civilization emerges from biology may be "a once in a million years" event in our galaxy. Things remained more or less the same for millions of years at a time before Homo sapiens evolved. The face of our planet then began to change at an ever increasing rate. If these changes are going to be studied (and maybe recorded) interested ETI’s would need to have a monitoring system in place. That’s the most likely scenario. (We will see in the second part of this essay, presented by retired aerospace engineer T. Roy Dutton, that the most thoroughly developed theory associated with UFO reports predicts just such a monitoring system. It is a theory derived only from the most credible reported data. No preconceptions entered into its development. And it is a theory that could be tested by appropriate astronomical observations.)

At this point we need to consider the biology that would have enabled ETI’s to have discovered the Earth at any time during the past 500 million years. This will explain why ETI’s or their artifacts are far more likely to be in the Solar System than in the majority of other planetary systems and why a procedure for monitoring developments on our planet may have been established. (For the scientifically cautious, of which I would like to include myself, I had better add that this assumes-for our present purposes-that ETI’s have evolved in our neighborhood of the galaxy and that interstellar spaceflight can become a universal activity.) It is a reasonable assumption that if ETI’s have evolved and have developed a spaceflight capability that can reach other planetary systems, then they will first visit systems containing planets with flourishing biospheres (blue planets) like the Earth. These would be priority targets. At least, for us, they would be the most interesting places in the universe and therefore prime targets for our future missions. In the literature of SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) the question was: How would ETI’s find these targets (planets with highly evolved biospheres) which might be very rare? It was generally thought that the only way would be to launch thousands of probes to sun-like stars and wait for the probes to provide answers. The cost and work involved in such a large-scale exercise was therefore considered by those in astronomical SETI as one good reason why ETI’s would use radio to contact and learn about their intelligent counterparts in the galaxy. However, we can now see that ETI’s would not have to launch thousands of probes to find highly evolved biospheres, which may be very rare in other planetary systems. They could, with advanced astronomy, know precisely where the blue planets are located in their part of the galaxy.

Given that one planetary system in a thousand has a blue planet with a highly evolved biosphere, then the ETI’s, I assume, would leave the other nine hundred and ninety-nine and head for those systems with blue planets. Either their biological selves would go or their robotic servants. The Earth would therefore be one of perhaps a relatively small number of preferred targets. But how would advanced ETI’s know that a planet with a highly evolved biosphere is here? It is a fact, obvious from the fossil record, that the Earth has had an astronomically detectable biosphere for about the past 500 million years. It has been detectable because of the spectral line of ozone (from the Earth’s ozone layer) which is in the near infrared at 9.6 microns. Actually an absorption band around this wavelength is what would be detectable, given the appropriate astronomical technology. And we might reasonably expect a species that had developed interstellar spaceflight to have that level of astronomical technology. Therefore, any neighboring ETI’s who reached the appropriate level of technological development during the last 500 million years of Earth history could in theory have detected the presence of our planet’s biosphere and headed straight for the Earth to investigate. Planetary systems could also be imaged and numerous other spectral lines from the atmospheres of planets could be observed using long integration times (the building up over time of the radiation being observed), so that the nature of the various planets within a system could be determined. But it is the ozone line that is the most important for detecting highly evolved biospheres. It seems unlikely that the Earth would be the first or the only planet with life to have been detected in this way. Planets with advanced biospheres could therefore be routinely discovered and investigated, especially if they are rare phenomena (given, of course, the availability of an advanced level of astronomical technology and interstellar spaceflight). This seems a reasonable possibility, given that Nature provides such a convenient way of finding the precise locations of other inhabited worlds.

The proposed Darwin interferometer of the European Space Agency, consisting of five dishes in space, supports the reasonableness of the scenario I have just described, although with Darwin our species may discover the possible planetary habitats of ETI’s, rather than the other way around. This interferometer should be stationed in orbit within a couple of decades, ready to image planetary systems and detect the ozone line from planetary ozone layers out to a distance of 65 light years. It will image planetary systems with an integration time of about ten hours, so that the orbits of planets can be determined. Integration time for the ozone line would be about a month. But we might assume that spacefaring ETI’s, who have been in the astronomy business rather longer than the European Community, are able to search a lot farther and quicker for evidence of planetary systems.

I have used the phrase "highly evolved biospheres" because that is what the ozone line would indicate. The Earth has not provided an ozone line for the major part of its history. Life has put the oxygen into our atmosphere which has formed the ozone layer. From what we know of geology, paleontology and biology it took about 3.5 billion years to do this. The basic reason it took so long is because oxygen is such a reactive gas and there are may "sinks" on a planetary surface where it will combine chemically with other elements. Also, disturbances of the crustal rocks during geological time will expose new "sinks". In theory the density of the ozone layer depends on the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere, so judging from the fossil record of 500 million years ago there was probably an ozone layer in place at that time comparable to what exists today. The abundant aquatic life of 500 million years ago, when the processes of evolution seem to have gone into overdrive, would have been dependent upon a high enough level of oxygen in the water. (Oxygen in the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans is always in balance). At that time the oxygen content of the atmosphere could have been about half that of today, but enough in theory to form a detectable ozone layer. However, a substantial ozone layer was certainly in place by 350 million years ago when tetrapods began to colonize dry land. The dynasties of vertebrates which evolved from then onwards to the present time would not have been possible otherwise. Thus the detection of the Earth’s ozone line would have been an open invitation to come and study this planet and its life forms, and even a period of 350 million years is a long time for an open invitation to be on display. Thus evidence of ETI’s in the Solar System could be as old as the main part of the fossil record. Ancient probes which observed the dinosaurs might still be in orbit somewhere in the Solar System, a possibility already accepted by some astronomers who have searched for them. Robert Freitas and Francisco Valdes have looked for ETI probes, using optical telescopes. They searched the stable orbits of all five of the Lagrangian points of the Earth-Moon gravitational system. Michael Papagiannis later used the 140 foot radio telescope at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory at the Green Bank to search the plane of the Earth’s orbit for evidence of extraterrestrial probes. He searched for the main spectral line of tritium, tritium being an unstable element and a by-product of nuclear fusion with a half-life of 12.5 years. Thus its presence in Earth orbit could only come from an artificial source. It would mean that someone out there in orbit had a nuclear fusion power source.

The probability of photosynthesis evolving and creating oxygen atmospheres is obviously basic to my argument here. It has to be a universal process. The study of photosynthesis does indicate that this may be so because there appears to be plenty of room chemically for variations in the molecular machinery. And if astronomers discover ozone lines from neighboring planetary systems we will know that photosynthesis is not unique to Earth. The machinery of photosynthesis on Earth varies in molecular detail in different groups of organisms, though certain bacteria manage on just half of the whole photosynthetic system which is one of the most complex organic systems to have evolved, consisting as it does of several hundred complex molecules. It changes radiant energy from the Sun into chemical energy which can be stored by organisms as energy-rich molecules-"food" in a word. Therefore, it seems unlikely (though possible) that a constant energy source from the central star of a planetary system would not be exploited-that the chemistry of life would not evolve to use it. Is life on other worlds going to pass up on a free lunch? A sign that it will not-that photosynthesis of some kind may be universal-is that it evolved relatively soon after the origin of life on Earth. The fossil evidence consists of what appear to be photosynthesizing bacteria in rock 3.5 billion years old, though the chemistry of photosynthesis would presumably have been far less advanced in those ancient organisms than it later became.

Therefore, given that: (a) the origin of life is universal where conditions allow; (b) a successful evolution leads to photosynthesizing life forms (bacteria and plants or their extraterrestrial equivalents); (c) life often continues for several billion years to the formation of oxygen atmospheres with ozone layers; then the evolution of advanced animal life (or its equivalent) followed by the evolution of technological intelligence may be common enough for interstellar travel to be a universal activity. But, for this, the scientific basis for interstellar travel must exist in Nature to be discovered. Advanced civilizations might then be expected to explore and monitor their nearest blue planets more or less indefinitely. Anyway, we have to accept this is so for our working hypothesis, otherwise there is no point in searching for evidence of ETI’s in the Solar System. The evidence, of course, could be hundreds of million of years old and inactive, or a monitoring system in place and working today, through the result of the Earth’s discovery long ago. The oldest sun-like stars in the galaxy are about 9 billion years old, so given that a very small proportion of planetary systems have just one earth-like planet, there could still be a vast number of life-bearing planets in our galaxy that are older than our world.

The unknown and perhaps unknowable nature of visiting ETI’s is something to consider at this point. The problem is that the time-scale provided by far older stars than the Sun which may support inhabited planets allows so much time for technological achievements that we can’t possibly know what these might be. We can therefore only investigate strange phenomena which might indicate an intelligent extraterrestrial presence, knowing, as we do, that our current knowledge indicates that ETI’s or their artifacts should be in the Solar System if interstellar spaceflight is a universal activity.

However, it may be useful to look at the ways in which our technology is developing. Artificial intelligence and computer technology is today only in its infancy, but developments so far lead us to consider the possibility that we might never have occasion to deal with biological beings from other world civilizations. When I view the rapid advances in these fields I sometimes wonder if the period during which biology is in charge of high technology may be relatively short. The next stage-and the final stage as far as biology goes-might be controlled by our robotic superiors. That stage has within it the possibility of unlimited growth in intelligence and could conceivably continue far longer than human civilization. But whether a dynasty of artificial intelligence is the next stage or not is as yet an open question. We can’t ignore the fact that we are incredible biological "machines", the product of about 450 million years of vertebrate evolution. Thus it might be easier to build on this biological foundation, if we want more intelligence and greater biological capacity-say, a much longer life span to explore "strange new worlds". It may be far more difficult to produce intelligent systems (robots) that are comparable or superior to what Nature has created. Nevertheless, visiting ETI’s, if they exist, may be non-biological even if biological ETI’s are still running things back home. Given that a permanent monitoring system is in place (and we can later consider a testable theory-the Astronautical Theory-which indicates that it may be), it seems unlikely that it would be run by biological beings because robots would be ideal for long interstellar journeys and planetary observations which might last for millennia. Artificial intelligence’s (robots) could simply switch off their energy source when things got boring. Long periods of hibernation, and other methods for keeping biological astronauts fresh for hundreds of years, do not look an acceptable option. However, although the distinction between biological entities and robots is very clear to us, that distinction may not be recognized by us if we ever encountered a robotic ETI. We have no idea what an advanced robot might look like. Advanced robots might not appear artificial to us, and the humanoids consistently reported in association with UFO’s might be artificial, if they exist at all. Thus searches for evidence of ETI’s should not necessarily be based on the expectation of discovering traces of biology, such as unusual patterns of biological molecules at reported saucer landing sites where strange humanoids have been seen wandering about. According to this argument, ETI robots would not leave such indications of life, though they might leave chemical traces of some sort.

I’ll offer a scenario here-but only as science fiction-and suggest that artificial intelligences might be produced so that they roughly corresponded in form to the dominant species on the planet under study. Although this suggestion is no more than science fiction, it does give some support for those many people who have reported humanoids associated with flying saucers. Some of these witnesses have obviously seen too much Star Trek, but others (the small minority) have consistently reported certain weird looking humanoids which one cannot really explain by convergent evolution on independent worlds. The humanoid life form has only been present on Earth for 5 million years out of 350 million years of tetrapod evolution. So the coincident existence of two sets of humanoids produced by evolution on any two isolated planets seems somewhat more than highly improbably, given that in our case the evolution to the level of technological humanoids took 4 billion years. And no other planet will have begun its biological evolution at the same time as Earth. Hundreds of millions of years-even billions of years-should separate the origin of life on different worlds, so that the biological stage in evolution on Earth is not going to be shared by any other planet, at least not in our galaxy. Though given the existence of billions of other galaxies comparable to our own, each with a few billions of stars like the Sun, the question of probabilities is way beyond us. But, no matter what form ETI’s might take, if they have become technological beings, the urge to explore other worlds is likely to be strong. A species is not going to become technologically advanced unless it is highly inquisitive.

In science fiction the participants in space sagas sometimes hop from one parallel universe to another, but I strongly reject the frequently encountered mental practice in ufology of trying to explain one phenomenon, which we do not understand and which may not even exist (visiting ETI’s), by reference to something else we do not understand and may not even exist (parallel universes). If we are going to make progress we have to adopt a rigorous scientific approach and build our hypotheses on the basis of what we already know to be correct. And these hypotheses have to be testable. That is, they have to be hypotheses that can be disproved. This is the weakness of astronomical SETI where the basic hypothesis is that ETI’s are out there sending signals, or that their technology is radiating at frequencies that could not possibly come from any natural source. It is perfectly reasonable to search on the basis of that hypothesis, but unlike strictly scientific hypotheses you cannot test it and put it aside. You can never prove that ETI’s are not out there. However, detection of evidence of ETI’s spaceflight technology in the Solar System would confirm that ETI’s prefer travel and exploration to broadcasting. It all depends on whether or not interstellar travel can become a routine activity. If interstellar space is not crossable, then the SETI astronomers are in the right game and may one day hit the jackpot, and good luck to them. But the scientific rationale which supports astronomical SETI, as I have tried to demonstrate, equally well supports the hypothesis that ETI’s are within the Solar System. This possibility is not at all in conflict with rational thought, as many people unfamiliar with the relevant science suppose. There is plenty of time in the history of an Earth-like planet for the possible evolution of photosynthesis and an advanced biosphere which could contain life forms that, on a proportion of worlds, would give rise to the evolution of technological intelligence.

During the past 5 million years, there were several species of hominids (upright apes and humans), but only our species managed to develop civilization. Looked at critically, we may say that this was only one very limited line in evolution (the hominids) amongst millions of other lines in the history of advanced life. But we can also say that it is early days in the evolution of advanced mammalian life. That stage in evolution only began after the dinosaurs died out 65 million years ago. If all the apes had become extinct after the climate changes drastically reduced the Earth’s forests, there could have been no humans. Yet in a number of today’s intelligent mammals, including some rodents, mongooses and certain marsupial possums, we can see characteristics that are comparable to those possessed by the early primates that were our ancestors about forty million years ago. So had there been no primate line, other opportunities would have been present for evolution to have produced a technologically intelligent species, though it might have taken another forty to fifty million years. The evolution of technological species may therefore not be as unlikely in highly evolved biospheres as some biologists believe, given that evolution has enough time to do its work. And Earth-like planets in systems far older than the Solar System will have provided plenty of time.

We therefore have adequate reasons for taking notice of any strange phenomena in our immediate environment or in the observable parts of the Solar System There could have been so many planets in our galaxy with highly evolved biospheres during the past four billion years (about the length of time that the ages of the oldest sun-like stars and organic evolution allows) that numerous ETI’s could have entered the interstellar travel business. I emphasize this argument because through my regular contacts with the science community I have the impression that evidence of ETI’s or their artifacts in the Solar System is so improbable as not to be worth serious consideration, let alone the effort of devising research projects to search for evidence of ETI’s. I also find that the majority of scientists are not familiar with the rationale which supports the extraterrestrial hypothesis.

This leads us to the question put by the National Institute for Discovery Science: "…what is the most probable means by which that (evidence of ETI) would occur?" The most logical conclusion, from what has already been said, is that it would be evidence of their spacecraft. Having visited the Solar System, and being like us members of this universe, they will have presumably done so in spacecraft of some kind. And any permanent monitoring system might involve the use of numerous spacecraft of different types. So what evidence is there of ETI’s spacecraft? This is where our science bumps into certain aspects of the UFO phenomena. What I think should gain our attention is the strangeness of a proportion of the reported phenomena. The old science fiction scenario where a clearly defined spaceship arrives and lands is not going to be a correct version of any future reality. My guess is that the more bizarre a reported sighting, the more likely it is to be a credible description of the phenomena observed. Strangeness is what we find in the most interesting reports of UFO phenomena, and it is what the technologies of highly advanced ETI’s are likely to display.

I find it perfectly correct and desirable that the science community should be highly critical of even the most credible UFO reports. The implications of such reports being correct would be so profound that proof needs to be absolutely indisputable. The level of proof required should therefore satisfy such scientific associations as, say, The Royal Society, in London, and the American Academy of Sciences, in Washington. For this reason, convincing evidence from more than one type of research project may be needed before it could be definitely accepted that ETI’s or their artifacts are within the Solar System. I have already mentioned the astronomical searches for alien probes in the Solar System, and there is also the possibility of research (which we can not explore in this essay) to investigate UFO images on video tapes. But as a foundation and reference for all other approaches to the subject of UFO’s, it is highly desirable to have a theory from available data which can predict observable UFO delivery and retrieval paths in space and possible landing sites. Such a theory is available, and this is where we come to part 1B of the Essay Question put by the National Institute for Discovery Science (the research project). It is also where I hand over my analysis of the subject to T. Roy Dutton, a retired aerospace engineer, who, in the second part of this essay, will put forward his Astronautical Theory and explain how it may be tested.

I have given no references because, during the past 30 years, so many people and research papers have provided discussions and information that have enabled me to develop my thinking on this subject.

A prolonged study, begun in 1967, of world-wide accounts of close encounters with unidentifiable aerial artifacts led, by synthesis, to the formulation of Dutton’s Astronautical Theory for UFO Close Encounters (1). The original data sample used to establish the Theory was drawn from the period 1885-1971. It was demonstrated that all the best close encounter (CE) events recorded during that period could have resulted from a highly programmed surveillance and exploration activity carried out from space. In view of the advanced nature of the craft described by witnesses and the fact that many of the reports pre-dated our Space Age, the conclusion had to be drawn that the artifacts had not been man-made and had probably originated from extraterrestrial sources.

It is important to emphasize that the Theory evolved from data processing and was not contrived at outset.

A programmed strategy for the systematic surveillance of Earth seems to have been discovered. This involves the adoption of a well-defined set of approach paths to Earth from space, which could result in craft orbiting the planet form those paths. The paths are inclined to the Equator at angles, within a limited range of angles, which guarantee full coverage of all the inhabited regions. Since the model was derived from events on or near to the Earth’s surface, it was implied that the atmospheric craft had been delivered and would be retrieved by spacecraft following the programmed paths in space.

Four well-used astro-navigational orientations of the ‘orbital’ paths have been discovered, and these determine the local times of the CE events. Two of the orientations are related to the fixed stars. The other two are Sun-related, and the paths orientated in that way cross the terminator on both sides of the Earth’s polar axis.

A further important discovery was that paths linking events geographically were, notionally, the paths of spacecraft orbiting the planet in retrograde (East to West) motion at super-orbital speeds. The period (time for one revolution) of the ‘orbits’ had been apparently constant throughout the entire period of 86 years.

Finally, it was observed that ground tracks often passed through fixed navigational marker points on the Equator. It was considered that this feature of the programming would serve to provide geographical reference points for the approaching spacecraft. All this being so, the surveillance activity could be considered to be fully automated and capable of being executed by intelligent (robotic) probes. Furthermore, given these circumstances, it is to be expected that bases have been established within our Solar System.

Since 1989, PC programs have been developed to enable new data to be processed and to be checked for correlation with the timing predictions of the Theory. During this processing some features of the original model have been refined, removing most of the uncertainties which had remained during initial, manual, processing of data. Programs now exist to check, numerically, the timings of new UFO reports against the predictions of the model. The latest version of this series checks actual event times to within one minute of expectations. Another important program produces a predicted-timings graph for any given geographical location. These graphs plot Standard Time against days of the year—and, provided the rules are not changed, they apply to any year. Related to the timings graph, a latitude/longitude grid map is produced to display the computed ground track lines serving the given location, and for which the timings lines have been calculated.

Since 1990, these programs have been used extensively to check new data against the astronautical model. Currently, any event which occurs within +/-20 minutes of a predicted time is considered to be further confirmation of the model, though doubt may remain in some circumstances. Doubts arise when two or more track timings are found within the 20-minute boundaries; or when an event lies midway between two consecutive predictions. The latter case requires further discussion.

The model suggests that the exploration craft are mostly visible on or soon after arrival from space and, again, just prior to departure for a rendezvous in space. It suggests that, between two consecutive timings, the craft operate unnoticed under the cover of darkness or, perhaps, may hide in seclusion until collection time arrives. Indeed, there is evidence that both these tactics are frequently used. But this generalization may not be a rigidly enforced rule.

The occasional sighting of a craft between predicted timings does not necessarily invalidate the model or the report. The main consequence is that such an event cannot be used to validate the Theory. Even with this constraint imposed, correlation with the predicted times is generally about 70% for a typical sample of up to 50 investigated UFO reports—and for major CE events, it is better than 90%.

To date, some 840 additional reports have been processed. (There were over 400 reports in the initial sample which was used to establish the Theory). The computer-processed sample includes data from 1950 to the present day. Over 460 of those cases have been reported, to date, during the 1990’s.

Given the high rates of correlation being achieved, a study of world-wide tactics was begun (2) and continues. Its purpose is to discover any additional rules governing the surveillance and exploration activities.

In view of the advanced state of development of the Astronautical Theory, there is now a definite need for these important findings to be checked and verified by other, suitably qualified and adequately equipped, researchers. Guidelines for a program of scientific validation follow. As will become apparent, each reasoned step of the program and the methods adopted during the Pilot Study resulted from an evolutionary process of gradual revelation.

It is most important that all the data used for the study should sensibly relate to anticipated ETI surveillance/exploration activities. In each report there should be some indication that inexplicable technology of some kind had been exhibited. Reports of structured aerial craft, unusual lighting configurations in the sky, meteoric entries into the atmosphere followed by controlled terminal behavior, objects displaying controlled behavior not typical of aircraft, and other manifestations of a similar kind, should be selected for inclusion in the database. Ideally, the cases selected should have been previously validated by experienced in-the-field investigators, but this is not always practicable.

During the early years of the Pilot Study, geographical studies of British localities from which reports had originated had revealed that there were common topographical, usually man-made, features to be found at those sites. These were all features which could have attracted attention during high-altitude surveillance activities. Supplementing this observation, most of the localities featuring in each intense period of UFO activity were found to be clustered within a clearly defined geographical envelope. These two observations, together, supplemented the behavioral characteristics of the unidentified craft often described by witnesses. This exercise was, therefore, an important preliminary which led into a prolonged study of global activity. It is recommended that any research project set up to check Dutton’s findings should include this element of basic research.

Having first been satisfied (by the outcome of the research outlined above) that the unidentifiable aerial artifacts could not have been produced by human means, and having noticed that the UFO’s generally arrived from and departed into the skies, a search for an astronautical delivery/retrieval system would be the next logical step.

Dutton’s approach to this enormous problem was to look for evidence of a ‘favored’ path from space, which might be found to link-up a substantial number of the global events recorded over a long period of many years. In view of the transient nature of outbreaks of intense UFO activity, it was considered likely that either direct incursions from space or short-term parking orbits might be adopted by the ETI’s.

The attempts to identify such favored paths from space involved relating the timings of events at different locations and at different dates of the year. One such exercise established the sidereal time equivalent of local Mean Solar Time at each event location, and synthesized those sidereal times in a search for Great Circle arcs in space which linked the events. Another exercise collected local Mean Solar Times at ten specified and equally-spaced dates throughout a long period of years. From this latter study it was established that several favored tracks in space were recognizable and that many had been orientated towards or away from the Sun.

Favored incursion tracks or parking orbits relating to the fixed stars were not able to be adequately defined during this first stage of manual processing, but were defined later, during examination of UFO event timings in specific localities. However, with today’s computing facilities the recognition of those fixed, star-related, orientations should not present such a problem.

Positive discoveries arising from the research just outlined should themselves provide verification of the presence of visiting artifacts produced by ETI’s. But the Pilot Study went on to consider whether the same kind of organization could be detected in the worldwide geographical distribution of UFO events. Notably, evidence was sought to support the idea that parking orbits might have been adopted for the delivery and retrieval of surface exploration craft at targeted sites.

Since the Celestial Great Circle evidence had been produced by considering the timings of the events on the ground, this had implied that the terrestrial events had occurred directly beneath those tracks in the sky. Therefore, it was argued, by linking the same geographical locations on the Earth’s surface, it might be possible to define other orbital parameters besides the previously-established favored inclinations to the equatorial plane; e.g. an orbital period and the direction of travel in orbit.

Problems arose immediately because no linking lines could be identified which represented natural orbit periods (i.e. 90 minutes or more). The best lines identified were consistent with periods associated with speeds in orbit of escape velocity or greater. But this turned out to be a consistent characteristic. By putting aside the obvious objections to that situation, the identified surface arcs linking UFO event sites were later identified as being arcs of three ‘super-orbital’ sequences. These were found to link with fixed equatorial marker points, from which tracks with various inclinations, within the identified range of inclinations, had been generated in a retrograde sense; i.e. from East to West.

All this was well beyond any expectations-and served to suggest that the surveillance activity of the ETI’s had been fully automated and executed, over a very long period of years, by robotic craft. The search for ground tracks had apparently revealed the completely programmed nature of the activity. This lead to the idea that the astronautical model, as then defined, could be checked by considering its timing predictions at given places in comparison with the timings of new UFO events at those locations.

The use of approach paths or orbits with favored inclinations within a limited range of inclinations, coupled with fixed navigational marker points on the equator, indicated that only a limited number of the defined tracks could be used to access any given location. Furthermore, the times when events could occur at the same location would be limited to four per track in any 24-hour period. This would be because only four celestial orientations of the tracks had been identified—two tentatively linked to the fixed stars and two others linked to the position of the Sun. The pursuit of this idea produced remarkable results. Not only did the global model seem to be confirmed but, also, during the first two exercises, the two provisional star-orientations became clearly defined. Many more checks have been carried out successfully since then.

As previously mentioned, attempts have already been made to identify other aspects of the programmed activity apparently defined by the work described above. The repeated use of distinct combinations of track inclinations, orientations and equatorial markers has already been indicated as being the means by which exploration activity is being executed during spates of intense activity (2). A regular flow of day-to-day reports, worldwide, is required for this exercise.

Another valuable insight has been gained by studying the position of the planets during intense activity periods.

There is much circumstantial evidence to suggest that significant activity periods occur when planets lie in zones of the Ecliptic Plane closely relating to the two star-related track orientations. Planetary conjunctions in other parts of the sky are also often features of the same periods.

The work procedure just described has been followed through over a period of a little over thirty years. It has been a spare-time study with very limited resources, aided by occasional support from individuals and groups. The basic discoveries had been made by 1980, but checking and development of the astronautical model did not begin until 1989, following the purchase of a PC. Special programs then had to be written and developed to facilitate the proving work.

To date, no interest has been shown in the creation of a scientific program to check the important findings being claimed. It is hoped that the situation will be changed in the very near future.

Validation of the Pilot study by rigorous scientific investigation will be the necessary precursor of serious observational work by optical and radio observatories. As mentioned earlier, there are important indicators suggesting that the ETI’s may have established relatively close and permanent bases, perhaps on the outer fringes of our Solar System. The possibility is now opened that those inexplicable flashes of light and anomalous radio signals, which have been recorded by various observatories over the years, may be found to have occurred close to the star-orientated approach paths identified by the Pilot Study.

By the means outlined herein, it is hoped that the claimed discoveries, which are potentially of enormous importance, may soon become recognized as scientific facts.

The Scientific Search for Evidence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Solar System

Scientific Procedures for Investigating UFO/ETI Activity