National Institute for Discovery Science: Epistemological Aspects of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

Epistemological Aspects of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

Kenneth Morris Jones

Postgraduate Student, University of Wollongong (Australia)

Contact Information:
P.O. Box 100, Ramsgate NSW 2217, Australia
E-mail: morrisjones @ hotmail.com

ABSTRACT: The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) has been plagued by significant controversies that have polarized research in this field. Research groups holding different methodologies and belief systems have generally been unable to reconcile their differences in order to produce a uniformly acceptable research paradigm. Furthermore, the epistemologies of these groups often seems to be geared in such a way that a synthesis of viewpoints from outside their own paradigm is impossible.

Sociological documentation of the evolution of knowledge within previous scientific disciplines has often revealed similar trends in the earliest phases of the study of a particular discipline. Over time, the acquisition of new evidence and the development of new theories causes a gradual evolution beyond the state of opposing paradigms. This can either result in the destruction of one or more several competing paradigms, or the development of a new paradigm that may not resemble any of its predecessors. Whatever the case, consensus gradually develops within researchers in a particular field as strongly constructed paradigms win support, and gradually give way to even stronger ones.

Such a scenario is yet to appear amongst all individuals concerned with the search for ETI. Furthermore, current research practices offer little hope of advancing the overall state of paradigm development in the near future.

This paper explores methods of dissecting the two principle paradigms of ETI research and ways of advancing each paradigm to a more advanced state. By doing so, it could be possible to produce a synthesized program for ETI research that would draw upon the arguments of both current paradigms. This would represent an overall advancement of ETI research, and allow for continued development.

1A. If contact were made between humans and extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) on Earth or in the solar system, what is the most probable means by which that would occur and how would we know that the interaction had taken place?

1B. Please design one particular research project or a whole set of research projects that focus on how to detect or verify the presence of ETI. The research design should be both scientifically rigorous and innovative. Implied in this is a further question: What are the acceptable levels of proof required by science and society for the existence of ETI on Earth or in the solar system?

In order to address these questions, it is essential to explore the current state of paradigm development and the epistemological approaches taken in the wider field of the search for the existence of ETI. The questions listed above are essentially subsets of this wider field which is a research discipline in its own right.

The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) is currently informed by two distinct paradigms, or schools of thought. The mainstream scientific community is almost totally dominated by a single paradigm, which could lead some to consider that no conflict of paradigms exists. However, a second paradigm is currently accepted by many individuals. Given the fact that this investigation, as stated in the above questions, is concerned with society as a whole and not just the mainstream scientific community, it is essential to give this second paradigm appropriate consideration. It should also be noted that some individuals who hold credentials in mainstream scientific disciplines also adhere to this second paradigm.

The existence of two paradigms for a given area of scientific inquiry is not surprising. Investigations into the history of scientific development suggest a remarkably consistent pattern of development within many otherwise disparate areas of scientific investigation, and the current state of affairs in ETI-related research is similar to the early phases of research into a new discipline.(1) The basic nature of these two paradigms will now be explained.

The paradigm referred to earlier in this essay as the "First Paradigm" is the most acceptable to mainstream scientific practice. This paradigm is informed by current knowledge and beliefs in the fields of physics, biology, psychology and sociology. All of these fundamental disciplines that have contributed to the First Paradigm are widely respected and have accumulated a wide degree of consensus on significant points. All can be subjected to the principles that are generally accepted as the philosophical guidelines of modern, rigorous science: the development of theories, the conduct of experiments, the principles of falsification, and the extrapolation of knowledge through theory. Of the above, the disciplines of psychology and sociology are arguably less subjectable to these processes than physics and biology, but the combination of all these disciplines to create the First Paradigm of ETI research has produced an overall level of credibility that satisfies scientists from all these disciplines.

The First Paradigm claims that the existence of ETI is possible. Physics has established beyond reasonable doubt that the universe is filled with an immense number of stars. Ongoing investigations into cosmology consistently provide evidence of this. It is suggested through the development of cosmological theories, and also in recent years by actual astronomical observations, that many of these stars host "solar systems" containing planets. Investigations in physics suggest that materials in these planets and their systems will be composed of the same elements already known on Earth, as listed in the Periodic Table of the Elements. We can predict the behaviour of such matter and thus make reasonable guesses about the nature of other stars and their planets. Direct observations on Earth have shown that matter of the same forms believed to exist throughout the universe can be assimilated into the physical forms of living organisms.(2)

Although none have yet been directly observed, it is theorised through reasoning grounded in physics that many planets in other solar systems will host conditions that are favourable to the existence of life. Investigations in biology suggest that life can arise in conditions that allow life to survive: this conclusion is reached regardless of one's support for various theories such as panspermia or localised evolution. Biology suggests that an ecosystem playing host to living organisms will cause those organisms to change though the processes of evolution. The existence of evolution suggests that some organisms will gradually increase in their intellectual capacity, and some of these will eventually reach a level of intellectual development where they can be considered to be intelligent life.(3)

The rise of intelligent life in the vicinity of a star is thus a linear process that requires a certain number of preconditions to be satisfied at each step in the process. According to estimates from both physics and biology, the probability of these events occurring at a given star are extremely low. However, the sheer number of stars in the universe, or even in a single galaxy such as our own, is so high that the development of ETI somewhere in the universe is almost seen as inevitable.

Research in the areas of psychology and sociology suggest that intelligent lifeforms will practice scientific investigations and develop technology based on these investigations. These theories are entirely consistent with the only universally accepted observation of an intelligent species, namely Homo sapiens. Intelligent life will consider the existence of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and could make attempts to find it or communicate with it. Furthermore, intelligent life will also gain an understanding of the electromagnetic spectrum, which includes light, radio waves and microwaves. Life forms with this knowledge will use it to develop technologies such as radio communications systems. Furthermore, they will also practice radio astronomy. Combining their curiosity about the existence of other intelligent life forms with their grasp of electromagnetic technology, they will set about trying to find or communicate with other intelligent life through electromagnetic communications. This will involve such activities as trying to detect artificial electromagnetic emissions from other life forms and the transmission of electromagnetic emissions to be detected by other intelligences working on similar pursuits.

Current thinking in physics is entirely consistent with the scenario described above for the behaviour of intelligent life, assuming that they wish to develop science and technology. In fact, if we assume the psychological and sociological goals of searching for other intelligences to be acceptable, current thinking in mainstream physics suggests that there is no other way for such a search to be carried out.

According to current paradigms in physics, the technical barriers to physically exploring across interstellar distances are so large that such missions would essentially be impossible to carry out. According to current physics, it is impossible to accelerate a spaceship to the speed of light, as relativistic considerations suggest that the amount of energy required for such a task is infinite. Thus, the physical translation of objects such as spaceships across interstellar distances would involve travel at much lower speeds and take many years. The travel times of such voyages would arguably be beyond the life spans of their crews, assuming that human lifetimes are any guide.(4) The complexities of building a spaceship capable of surviving such a long journey are also enormous. Current physics does not offer any real guidelines for easy alternatives such as "warping space" or travelling faster than light. It is true that some researchers have drawn speculative plans for spacecraft using exotic propulsion systems that would essentially produce travel faster than a linear beam of light between two locations, but even if such schemes could be drawn with absolute precision, mainstream physics holds that the engineering and energy requirements for such a voyage would be prohibitive.

By contrast, the transmission of electromagnetic waves across interstellar distances is technically feasible and does not require excessive amounts of energy or infrastructure. Intelligent lifeforms wishing to communicate with others are likely to use electromagnetic waves for such activities. Hundreds or even thousands of years would often be required for a message to travel in one direction, yet such time periods are small compared with estimates of the lifetimes of civilisations produced by sociological theory.

Thus the First Paradigm supplies three main points. It suggests that the existence of ETI is almost certain. It suggests that electromagnetic communications is the most obvious method of establishing evidence of the existence of ETI. It suggests that other methodologies are essentially impossible.

The mainstream scientific community has practiced actual science on the basis of the First Paradigm in a series of experiments that are generally classified as the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Numerous SETI experiments have been performed over the course of several decades, yet all have been informed by this paradigm, and all share a number of common characteristics. SETI experiments involve the use of receivers for electromagnetic waves. Such receivers must have some form of directional capability, such as the use of a parabolic signal collector, in order to reduce interference from Earth-based signals. Obviously, these collectors are aimed at space during these experiments. SETI researchers hope to identify a signal from an extraterrestrial intelligence by the well-regarded process of falsificationism. A signal that cannot be explained away, or falsified, as coming from a natural source could be assumed to have originated from an ETI, although falsificationist doctrine also states that this line of reasoning does not constitute absolute proof. A deep understanding of the characteristics of electromagnetic emissions from "natural" radio sources in deep space such as stars and pulsars strengthens the confidence of mainstream science in its ability to falsify a suspected signal.

Although most SETI experiments are focused on the radio and microwave portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, some experiments have also been conducted in the optical regions.

No SETI experiment currently in operation is equipped to confirm a signal as artificial in a single observation. The engineering constraints of the equipment in use thus mimic a philosophical principle of verification in mainstream science: an experiment must be repeatable. In the case of SETI, verification of a signal as a candidate transmission from an ETI would involve not only observations from independent teams with different equipment, but the repeated detection of this signal at different points in time.

The methodologies of SETI experimentation illustrates further aspects of the First Paradigm. It assumes that attempts to use the electromagnetic spectrum for communication by other intelligent lifeforms would resemble the engineering of methods used on Earth. A "carrier wave", consisting of a continuous emission on a precise, predetermined frequency, would be modulated in various ways (such as amplitude modulation or frequency modulation) to encode information on this signal. SETI experiments are designed to detect such a "carrier wave", which is assumed to be different in its characteristics from emissions from a natural radio source. Developing the paradigm in even greater detail, it is assumed that certain frequencies such as those identical to the spectral emissions of hydrogen and hydroxyl ions will be favoured frequencies for the transmission of signals designed to be detected by SETI experiments, as these frequencies are of astronomical significance. These assumptions about the precise nature of electromagnetic signals likely to be emitted by ETI are debated by adherents to the First Paradigm, yet these debates do not challenge the fundamentals of the First Paradigm itself.

The most concise expression of all of the principles of the First Paradigm is the legendary "Drake Equation" developed by astronomer Frank Drake. This equation predicts the number of intelligent civilisations in this galaxy that are likely to be transmitting electromagnetic signals at any given time. The Drake Equation achieves this by multiplying estimates of the various factors mentioned by the First Paradigm as steps in the linear development of ETI, such as the number of suitable stars, the number of stars with planets, and the number of planets that are habitable. Numerical estimates produced by computing different inputs with the Drake Equation suggest that thousands, or even millions of extraterrestrial civilisations should be transmitting electromagnetic signals in this galaxy alone!

The Drake Equation is arguably of more significance for its blunt expression of an epistemology, rather than its precise numerical outcome. It is noteworthy that in more than 30 years of research, the formulation of the Drake Equation and the epistemology it represents have never been subjected to a rigorous challenge. The primacy of the Drake Equation over such a period of time is a testimony to the strength, and possibly the inflexibility, of the First Paradigm and its adherents.

The most noteworthy result of experiments conducted at the instigation of the First Paradigm is that no proof or evidence of the existence of ETI currently exists. Several anomalous signals with no precisely determined explanation have been received in the course of SETI experiments, yet none of these is considered to be a candidate signal. All have failed attempts to verify them by independent observation and repeatibility. In theory, it is possible that any one of these signals, or emissions immediately dismissed as natural, could be an actual transmission from an ETI, but the practitioners of SETI will not accept any evidence that has not been subjected to scrutiny and falsificationist procedures. In this regard, modern SETI experiments are firstly informed by a scientifically rigorous theory concerning the existence and behaviour of ETI, and secondly carried out in a manner consistent with the same rigorous principles of the scientific disciplines behind the search for ETI.

The Second Paradigm concerning the existence and investigation of ETI is largely perceived as being contradictory and incompatible with the First Paradigm. The Second Paradigm is largely rejected by the mainstream scientific community, as it is perceived as incompatible and falsified by broader, long established paradigms in fields such as physics. However, the Second Paradigm has attracted large numbers of adherents in the general community, especially in North America.

The Second Paradigm originates from, and is informed by, numerous reports from individuals who claim to have experienced actual physical contact with intelligent extraterrestrial lifeforms. According to these reports, this contact occurs when a person is "abducted" by a group of intelligent extraterrestrials who have arrived near the abductee in a spaceship, often described as saucer-like in appearance. The abductee is transported to the interior of the spaceship and is then subjected to a medical examination before being returned to the location when the abduction is claimed to have occurred.

These reports of alleged encounters with ETI feature several broadly consistent elements. The extraterrestrials mentioned in these reports are almost universally described as being short humanoids. The beings possess grey skin, large, black eyes and have disproportionately large heads. This has led to the popular conception of the existence of a race of extraterrestrials known colloquially as "greys".

Another frequent element of abduction reports is the staging of experiments concerned with human reproduction. People claiming to be abductees often report procedures such as the removal of sperm or ova, and the implantation or removal of fetuses from their bodies.

Reports of these abduction experiences are frequently obtained through testimony made while a subject is under hypnosis. However, some reports are supplied by individuals in a normal, conscious state.

The Second Paradigm evokes the suggestion that the sheer numbers of these reports indicates that they are manifestations of a genuine phenomenon. Exactly what this phenomenon is remains a subset of debate within some observers of the Second Paradigm. However, the majority of adherents to the Second Paradigm maintain that these reports are evidence of actual visits to Earth by ETI and contact between ETI and human beings.

Thus the construction of the Second Paradigm contrasts greatly with the First in many ways. It is not informed by current assumptions of mainstream scientific practice. It places a strong emphasis on input that is not considered valid by mainstream science. Whereas the First Paradigm is a systematic process of articulating theories and searching for evidence on the basis of those theories, the Second Paradigm begins with the supply of evidence and develops theories as a reaction to this. Most significantly, the Second Paradigm differs in its conclusion on suggesting evidence for the existence of ETI: Although the First Paradigm currently maintains that there is no actual evidence of ETI, the Second claims that such evidence is plentiful. Moving further than the fundamental question of the existence of ETI in the first place, the Second Paradigm also suggests activities on the part of ETI such as actual physical visits across interstellar distances that the First Paradigm suggests are impossible under any circumstances.

The construction of an epistemology within the Second Paradigm makes several assumptions on the validity of certain evidence and methodologies, as does the First Paradigm. However, the Second Paradigm clearly attributes different levels of importance to certain elements that must be addressed by both paradigms.

The Second Paradigm places a high value on the reliability of the testimony of individuals who claim to have encountered ETI. This reliability is grounded in two principles drawn from mainstream science that are also emphasized by the First Paradigm: repeatability and falsification. Reports of ETI encounters are numerous. Investigators working within the Second Paradigm claim that such reports number at least in the hundreds, if not thousands. These reports can be classified as repeatable phenomena due to their consistency. Investigators have noted the consistency of reports of details such as the appearance of the ETI involved, hardware observed during encounters and even the format of medical examinations and procedures carried out during an abduction experience. Furthermore, some researchers working within the Second Paradigm claim to practice a form of falsificationism in their investigations. Subjects supplying testimony of ETI encounters are often psychologically screened in order to reduce the probability that their testimony is affected by psychological disorders. One falsificationist method reported by the Second Paradigm investigator Budd Hopkins involves the suppression of "evidence" gained during interviews with alleged abductees. The independent reporting of evidence that has not been circulated in the public domain by different sources gives credibility to the stories supplied by these individuals, on the basis that such information could not have been obtained through prior collaboration or suggestion. If one assumes the foundation of the Second Paradigm to be correct, it is possible that these methodologies could also lead to the rejection of evidence that could be valid on the basis that it is not consistent with expectations imposed by the researcher. This issue mirrors the rejection of anomalous signals by the SETI community that do not conform to the expectations placed on the characteristics of a genuine signal.

Some researchers involved with studying abductee reports suggest that the existence of many consistent reports from alleged abductees may not actually constitute evidence of visits to Earth by ETI. An alternative suggests that this evidence points to the existence of a purely psychological phenomenon of mass-delusion: the mechanics of such a phenomenon (assuming it is possible) are not precisely understood by mainstream psychology. The fact that abduction reports have received so much coverage in the mass media has arguably played a role in their widespread apparition in recent years: the number of reports obtained seems to correlate with the amount of publicity the subject receives. It is not inconceivable that these stories are processed by the subconscious in such a way that the experience itself is simulated during dreams. Another popular theory suggests that people reporting abductions are unwitting subjects in some form of classified government project designed to simulate the perceptions of encounters with ETI. The exact methodologies or motivations for such a project are not made clear.

One explanation for these reports draws upon physics and neurophysiology to suggest that abduction reports are the result of hallucinations induced by electromagnetic influences on, and within, the brain. Experiments conducted under laboratory conditions involving the electromagnetic stimulation of the brain have led some subjects to hallucinate imagery and feel emotions that some researchers feel are consistent with the major elements of ETI abduction reports.(5)

Despite these differences, the bulk of investigators and supporters of the Second Paradigm are convinced that the testimony of alleged abductees is evidence of actual visits to Earth by ETI. Drawing further evidence from these statements, constructors of the Second Paradigm have supplied further information on the nature of this interaction. The so-called "grey" race of aliens are engaged in an intensive program of visiting the planet Earth in spaceships, primarily for the purpose of conducting reproductive experiments with humans. One goal of these experiments is the production of hybrid human/grey offspring: The motivation for producing such individuals is not made clear.

The Second Paradigm has been extensively criticized for its failure to supply physical evidence of the alleged encounters with ETI. With so many abductions allegedly taking place, there should be ample opportunity for subjects to retrieve artifacts from alien spacecraft. Testimony supplied by abductees counteracts this by frequently suggesting that abductees are incapacitated during their encounters. Such incapacitation can vary from total physical paralysis to forms of hypnotic control that render abductees compliant with the instruction of ETI. According to abduction reports, the extraterrestrials taking part in these experiments do not seem motivated to disclose their existence to humanity in general, let alone offer proof. Apart from refusing to offer artifacts, abductees are also apparently subjected to psychological conditioning that suppresses the memory of the abduction experience.

The failure of any overt disclosure on the part of ETI is regarded by adherents of the First Paradigm as unbelievable. Indeed, the First Paradigm explicitly assumes that intelligent lifeforms will want to locate others and disclose their own existence. This is a sociological argument that is difficult for adherents of either paradigm to argue rigorously. Over the course of SETI research, humans have often argued that disclosing the existence of Homo sapiens to the rest of the universe is unadvisable for various reasons, such as the possibility of creating hostilities. Adherents of the Second Paradigm have argued that the apparent lack of disclosure by the "greys" could be motivated by several rational reasons. The "greys" could be acting out of benevolence, understanding that an abduction is a traumatic experience for a human, and memory suppression of abductees is a form of psychological anaesthetic.(6) Failure to disclose themselves could also be done in order to prevent any disruptions of normal human activities for reasons of experimental accuracy: attempts to make observations as passive as possible are a common feature of experiments conducted on Earth.

Some alleged abductees have claimed that physical wounds sustained during abductions should be accepted as physical evidence of the phenomenon. However, adherents of the First Paradigm, and the more skeptical adherents of the Second, both note that physical scarring is a hardly an uncommon phenomenon on Earth. The possibility of deliberate self-mutilation cannot be discounted. Some reports have also been made of physical implants inserted in abductees. It is noteworthy that no reports of a conclusive study carried out on an alleged implant removed from an abductee has appeared.

The Second Paradigm does not generally address cosmological issues relating to the development of star systems and the development of conditions suitable for life. According to this Paradigm, such estimates are superfluous in the light of actual evidence of the existence of ETI. However, the Second Paradigm does not suggest that theories contained in the First Paradigm concerning the likelihood of the development of ETI are wrong.

The Second Paradigm also fails to supply any adequate argument that addresses the question of the feasibility of interstellar travel within the context of mainstream physics. According to the Second Paradigm, the feasibility of interstellar travel is demonstrated by the fact that "greys" routinely make physical contact with Earth: It is assumed that their journeys originate at a point well beyond our own solar system. The resultant case made by the Second Paradigm is that the paradigms of mainstream physics are not an accurate model of the functioning of the universe, since they do not explain or even allow such journeys to take place. Despite this, the Second Paradigm has not argued against the technical case for searching for electromagnetic emissions from ETI.

Debate concerning the existence of ETI by those who are prepared to acknowledge the possibility of the existence of ETI has almost totally been polarized between these two paradigms. An adherent of one Paradigm is mostly inclined to reject input and debate with adherents of the other. Despite this, there is still the potential for experimentation and debate concerning the existence and methods of contact with ETI that could attract the support of both Paradigms. It is worthwhile exploring the mechanics that would allow this interaction to take place.

Although both Paradigms place different values on certain pieces of evidence, both are governed by processes of reason and a certain degree of skepticism. Elements such as the collection of data, the evaluation of data and the formulation of hypotheses are common to both. Most importantly, both are willing to concede that ETI actually exists, and some form of contact can take place.

Adherents of the Second Paradigm offer no alternatives and no disagreement with the epistemological approach taken to the development of ETI that informs the pursuit of radio SETI experiments. They can offer no evidence that suggests that these experiments should not take place. Similarly, adherents to the First Paradigm must admit that the Second Paradigm has a genuine phenomenon to work on. Even if one does not accept abduction stories as evidence of the existence of ETI, there is no doubt that hundreds of people have made such statements. The phenomenon of the testimony itself is indisputable, and can at least be subjected to study by mainstream psychology, a branch of science that has also informed the development of the First Paradigm and SETI experiments.

One unfortunate characteristic of the Second Paradigm has been the apparent refusal of its supporters to conduct experiments. The staging of radio SETI searches is a valid experiment and a natural response to the existence of the First Paradigm. No equivalent study has apparently been instigated by adherents of the Second Paradigm. It could be argued that continuing interviews of alleged abductees using consistent and rigorously defined procedures constitutes experimentation, but this is unlikely to present a method of falsifying the paradigm. The appearance of anomalous data in these interviews is mostly used to falsify the subject instead of the paradigm itself. Given the amount of data that has already been collected from subjects, it seems that further interviews will do nothing more to explore the fundamentals of the phenomenon itself. If the Second Paradigm wishes to subject itself to further testing and development, its advocates will need to design and carry out experimentation of a different form. The most rigorous of these would involve the examination of physical phenomena, which would make any data thus generated suitable for scrutiny by adherents to the First Paradigm or the disciplines that inform it.

In accordance with the questions this essay seeks to address, the following experiments are proposed as methods of furthering the overall question of the existence of ETI. This section of the essay constitutes the precise answers to Question 1B raised in the topic. Question 1A will be answered later.

As Question 1B notes, it is necessary to consider the levels of proof that would be required by both science and society to suggest and confirm the existence of ETI. Although some adherents of the Second Paradigm maintain that the evidence collected in abductee interviews also constitutes proof, such a statement cannot be made if one applies scientific rationalism. The more scientifically rigorous adherents to the Second Paradigm state that their evidence and research is highly suggestive of ETI-related phenomena, but admit that they still hold no proof.

It is acknowledged by all that the existence of ETI would constitute a physical phenomenon. Even the second paradigm suggest that ETI possess physical bodies capable of registering as physical objects that can be measured accordingly, even if the instrumentation used constitutes nothing more than sensory input on the part of the abductee. Thus, both Paradigms should accept the supply of evidence of ETI obtained through physical means. The recording of evidence of a physical phenomenon using impartial and well-constructed instrumentation, and the subjecting of that evidence to falsificationist procedures from mainstream science, thus constitutes the only form of evidence that should be acceptable to any investigator in this field, and to society in general. Hence, any further investigations relating to the existence of ETI should focus on satisfying this goal.

With these criteria in mind, the following experiments were designed on the basis of principles held by one of the dominant paradigms or both. The results should be admissible for examination to both paradigms.

The creation of SETI experiments involving the search for electromagnetic emissions from transmitters created by ETI is an experiment that has received the commendation of both Paradigms. Appropriately generated data from such an experiment would constitute adequate evidence for both science and society. The current methodologies used in these experiments are rigorous, which would lend credibility to an announcement of success. As these experiments have already been proposed, and are already being conducted, no further explanations of them will be provided.

The Second Paradigm also suggests that abduction experiences involve the existence of ETI, and are also physical phenomena. It would seem logical to propose experiments focused on clarifying the nature of the abduction experience. Studies of neurophysiology that attempt to induce abduction experiences through the use of electricity and electromagnetism under conditions that could also appear outside laboratories are useful. This could falsify the abduction phenomenon in some cases, but it would arguably leave open the possibility that other reports are genuine. In either case, neither result would actually supply evidence of the existence, or non-existence, of ETI. Hence, it would seem appropriate to conduct tests aimed at monitoring an actual event that was not artificially stimulated.

Documentation collected from abduction reports suggests that people who claim such an experience often recall multiple abductions. This could either be interpreted as suggesting that these people are part of an ongoing study by extraterrestrial abductors, or that an individual who is susceptible to the psychological perception of an abduction experience is likely to encounter the same set of preconditions required for this perception on numerous intervals. In either case, it would seem advisable to conduct some sort of monitoring of individuals who are likely candidates for such an experience.

The monitoring of individuals during sleep for the purposes of studying neural activity is well established. Using these principles, subjects who have reported abduction experiences could be monitored in laboratories during their sleep periods. The recall of an abduction experience after waking, coupled with neurophysiological data and the documented proof using video cameras or personal witnesses that the subject never left the laboratory would be interesting. Documentation of abduction stories has produced a high correlation between the timing of alleged events and periods when the abductee was asleep immediately prior to the anomalous event.(7) This correlation suggests that the altered state of neural activity during sleep could play a role in the phenomenon.

A more involved form of experiment would be the detailed surveillance of the home of a person considered to be an abduction candidate. This could involve the use of video cameras, microphones and other methods of recording physical phenomena such as thermometers, magnetometers and radiation detectors. The use of technology involved in the arrival of an alien spacecraft or the abduction of a subject would be likely to produce some form of anomalous reading in one or more of these instruments. Conversely, the reporting of an abduction experience, coupled with no recorded evidence of physical anomalies, would also be informative.

The Second Paradigm maintains that ETI visiting the Earth must possess some advanced form of spacecraft propulsion currently beyond the comprehension of physics. Another physical experiment that could be conducted at the instigation of the Second Paradigm would attempt to generate evidence of the use of an advanced propulsion system in our solar system. Scientists are already engaged in the pursuit of "gravity waves", a temporary disruption of space-time caused by the movement of a large object generating a gravitational field that is predicted by relativity. Detectors for gravity waves have been designed for use on Earth and in space. Although physics does not currently offer any exact guidelines for building an advanced, faster-than-light propulsion system, most serious speculation on the matter suggests that such a feat would involve the disruption of space-time in the vicinity of a spacecraft. The operation of such a propulsion system by extraterrestrial spacecraft could thus generate gravity waves that could be physically detected with the appropriate instrumentation. One problem with the use of such an experiment is similar to the detection of a radio signal from extraterrestrials: with no previous evidence to serve as a guideline, it could be difficult to decide if a given reading was natural or artificial. One means of discriminating an artificial source would be to use multiple detectors at different points in the solar system, with at least one detector system in heliocentric orbit. In theory, an extremely localized disruption from a spacecraft could produce readings of different magnitude and at different times in these detectors: a gravity wave arriving from a distant source (such as a natural cosmic event) would produce a more uniform set of readings. Extremely accurate calibration and synchronization would be required for such an experiment. The detectors themselves could focus on studying the movement of a large suspended mass, or could work through interferometric means by measuring laser beams travelling between known points.(8) The latter option has been proposed for space-based detectors. As with radio SETI searches, a gravitational wave search for advanced propulsion systems could ride piggyback on instrumentation and research programs aimed at other goals.

Having considered the means by which a detection of ETI could be made, it is now possible to address the matters raised by Question 1A. It should be noted that the most likely means by which contact with ETI may occur is not necessarily the most likely way to generate confirmation or even suspicion of such contact. Contact could easily occur, yet we may not actually know that contact had taken place. This argument is critical to supporters of the Second Paradigm, but it cannot be ignored by radio SETI researchers who may have already rejected signals from ETI that technically constitute a form of contact.

The Second Paradigm suggests a strong probability that contact may have already occurred, yet the majority of the mainstream scientific community do not accept this suggestion as valid. Until advocates of the Second Paradigm sharpen their methodologies, or unless any putative ETI currently visiting the planet supplies more acceptable evidence, this perception is unlikely to change.

Under the current regime of scientific culture, SETI experiments based on observing the electromagnetic spectrum are the only active pursuits that are regarded with credibility by the scientific community. In fact, an event judged by current SETI practitioners to be artificial would largely be accepted by the scientific community, the general public and by adherents to the Second Paradigm. Steady improvements in the sensitivity and processing speed of these experiments is rapidly increasing the probability that such a signal will be received in the near future. One estimate from a leading SETI researcher suggests that a signal could be reasonably expected within ten years.(9) Thus, the combination of a powerful search methodology and the credibility of an announcement suggest that the detection of an artificial electromagnetic emission from deep space is the most likely means by which an interaction would occur, and the most likely means by which that interaction would be confirmed.